using the Butterfl y Effect. What this exotically-named example examined,
“Does the fl ap of a butterfl y’s wings in Brazil set off a tornado in
Texas?” Our lecturer was an eccentric, but brilliant man—and we loved
the way he taught physics. During our
numerous encounters in the canteen, he
would elaborate on the Butterfl y Effect—
how a small change in one part of a system
could lead to immense changes to
the whole.
Cut to August 2006, and the launch
of the world’s first Blu-ray player by
Samsung in the US. Can the fl ap of a
US DVD cover set off an entertainment
battle in India? Theoretically, it could.
Evidently, it won’t.
First, a short backgrounder. The DVD
is the default mode of home entertainment
in the US. In India, it is the video
CD (VCD). However, DVD is fast gaining
ground and VCDs may be history
in a couple of years. And therein lies
the crux—will the new war of DVD formats
(Blu-ray versus HD DVD) affect
us in India?
Here’s one reason why it won’t.
Because consumers in India are so
price conscious that the outrageously
priced Blu-ray or HD DVD
titles will not become standard fare
for a long time to come.
Also, more importantly, consumers
in the US (where a large
part of this war will be played
out) and India do not want to be
confused or be taken for granted.
In the battle for the video
cassette player formats in the
1980s, only one succeeded. It
seems that the same story could
repeat itself, powered by a few
billion dollars, in the Blu-ray-HD
DVD skirmish.
Blu-ray holds up to 25GB of data, HD
DVD packs 15. Blu-ray is led by Sony,
the HD DVD cohort is being marshaled
by Toshiba. Sony can launch
hundreds of movie titles. Toshiba can
counter that too.
Really, who cares? The consumer
wants quality entertainment, and more
bang for his buck. He will automatically
gravitate towards whoever gives him the
best deal. More so in India where the
consumer is price conscious.
The big hoo-ha in the US about the
Samsung launch lasted, ahem, less than
24 hours. In India, I doubt whether it
even made it to the news pages.
In the unlikely scenario that Sony
and Toshiba both win an equal share
of the DVD format pie, the loser will
be the consumer. Sony owns hundreds
of movie titles (14 have been released
on Blu-ray so far), and its partners
Walt Disney, Twentieth Century Fox
and Warner Bros own a few thousand
more. Toshiba’s partners, include Paramount
Pictures, Universal Studios and
New Line Cinema, and together own a
few thousand too. So if both are still
in the fray, how do you choose which
DVD player to buy?
The signs are ominous. In the short
term, at least, the consumer may just
choose to ignore both formats until
the manufacturers decide which one
will be the standard. It is much like
the plethora of hybrid car technologies—
until someone figures out which
is standard, consumers will continue
buying petrol-powered cars and polluting
the environment.
Then there is the seeming power of the
US consumer. It is only an illusion. Not
because he cannot fi ght it out in consumer
courts (he often does), but because he
has very little to fi ght about until, ironically,
he shuts up and companies
like Ricoh listen. In mid-July, Ricoh
introduced a combo player—one
that would play both Blu-ray and
HD DVD. It could be the first of
many such players.
The US consumer, and by extension,
his Indian counterpart, are
already winning this battle. Unless
Sony and Toshiba listen to these
quiet consumers, they might actually
end up being losers.
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